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This paper surveys the recent literature on fiscal sustainability, with particular emphasis on emerging market countries. It discusses the main elements that differentiate emerging market countries from industrial countries and then discusses how probabilistic models can help to evaluate fiscal sustainability in an uncertain environment. Based on this discussion, the paper uses Ecuador to illustrate an application of the probabilistic model, and of the framework to evaluate the impact of shocks to current account financing on sustainability.
This paper analyzes reforms and counter-reforms in Bolivia in recent decades and their effects on the policymaking process (PMP) and productivity. Bolivia’s PMP has shifted from a formal representative democracy to a “participative and direct type of democracy” where street protest and other non-conventional forms of political participation have become dominant. While reforms have increased produc ... (View publication)
This paper summarizes the findings of the recent Inter-American Development Bank book Two to Tango: Public-Private Collaboration Productive Development Policies, based on case studies of 25 productive development policies (PDPs) in five countries and discusses an additional example from Peru. One finding that emerges from those studies is that governments could not make policy in isolation and nee ... (View publication)
This paper explores the qualitative and quantitative implications of taxation for growth and savings in three Latin American countries: Brazil, Chile and Mexico, studying a small open economy in the context of an endogenous growth model where the domestic interest rate depends on the level of domestic debt. The model's parameters are calibrated to the Brazilian, Chilean and Mexican economies. ... (View publication)
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