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This paper analyzes influences on the credit standing of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), specifically the quality, diversification and single name concentration of their portfolios, and on the market practice known as Preferred Creditor Status (PCS), whereby sovereigns that default on other debt rarely fail to meet their obligations to MDBs. The paper examines how rating agencies assess MDB ratings, focusing in particular on how Standard & Poor’s assesses capital as part of its MDB rating process. The results are compared with those implied by an industry-standard, ratings-based Credit Risk Model (CRM). Applying these methodologies to one specific MDB, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the paper shows that S&P’s approach is highly conservative in its evaluation of single name concentration risk and makes insufficient allowance for PCS. Calibrating the CRM with risk-neutral distributions, the paper examines the effect of PCS on MDB funding rates and compares model-implied funding spreads with those observed in the market.
Bond development in Latin America presents something of a mixed picture. This edition of IDEA looks at how local bond markets have grown in size and liquidity but continue to lag behind emerging economies in Asia in a number of dimensions. How long will it take Latin America to develop deep and liquid bond markets? In addressing this question, the newsletter draws heavily on the 2007 issue of the ... (View publication)
This paper applies an analytical framework that identifies the types of market failures responsible for the underdevelopment of the housing finance system. The working hypothesis is that there is a correlation between the nature and scope of market failures, and the kind of public interventions actually implemented. Evidence seems to disprove the policy adequacy hypothesis. Nevertheless, it is enc ... (View publication)
What happens to firms in the face of financial crises? Little research has been done on the microeconomic implications of financial policies and crises while attention has been focused on the macroeconomic effects of these events. This book attempts to fill this research gap. Credit Constraints and Investment in Latin America contains new evidence on the nature, extent, evolution and consequences ... (View publication)
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