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This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of China’s 2009-2010 fiscal stimulus package by simulating a dynamic general equilibrium multi-country model of the world economy, showing that the effects on China’s economic activity are sizeable: absent fiscal stimulus China’s GDP would be 2.6 and 0.6 percentage points lower in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The effects are stronger under a US dollar peg because of the imported loose monetary policy stance from the United States. Higher Chinese aggregate demand stimulates higher (gross and net) imports from other regions, in particular from Japan and the rest of the world, and, only to a lesser extent, from the United States and the euro area. However, the overall GDP impact of the Chinese stimulus on the rest of the world is limited. These results warn that a fiscal policydriven increase in China’s domestic aggregate demand associated with a more flexible exchange rate regime have only a limited potential to contribute to an orderly resolution of global trade and financial imbalances.
Latin American countries suffer from severe macroeconomic volatility. What is the link between this volatility and the sustainability of fiscal policy? Does the cause and effect relationship run only from macro to fiscal or is it a two-way street? ¿Como armar el rompecabezas fiscal? examines this relationship in the context of a search for appropriate indicators of fiscal policy sustainability. Th ... (View publication)
The major objective of this paper is to investigate institutional arrangements as a determinant of loan repayment in the Chilean financial market. A second aim is to analyze the effects of these arrangements on borrowers’ behavior. Although La Porta et al. (1997, 1998) classify Chile as a French Civil Law country, the law and private arrangements have evolved consistently with the capital market d ... (View publication)
This paper considers whether institutional factors, in this instance electoral systems and procedures, affect Latin American countries' fiscal performance as measured by the size of the public sector, fiscal deficits, the size of the public debt, and the degree of procyclality of fiscal policy. The authors find that electoral systems characterized by large district magnitude and high political fra ... (View publication)
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