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The available evidence on the effects of aid on growth is notoriously mixed. We use a novel empirical methodology, a heterogeneous panel vector-autoregression model identified through factor analysis, to study the dynamic response of exports, imports, and per capita GDP growth to a "global" aid shock (the common component of individual country aid-to-GDP ratios). We find that the estimated cumulative resposive of exports and per capita GDP growth to a global aid shock are strongly positively correlated, and both responses are inversely related to exchange rate overvaluation measures. We interpret this evidence as consistent with the Dutch disease hypothesis. However, we also find that, in countries with less overvalued real exchange rates, exports and per capita GDP growth respond positively to a global aid shock. This evidence suggests that preventing exchange rate overvaluations may allow aid-receiving countries to avoid the Dutch disease.
Latin America appears to be suffering from reform fatigue--but why? Is the public tired of waiting for reforms' long-promised benefits? Are policymakers scared of bearing the political costs? Are international experts less sure of their programs and prescriptions? The articles in the latest issue of IDEA examine the causes and symptoms of reform fatigue and discuss the prospects for the reform pro ... (View publication)
This paper uses simple regression techniques to make an initial assessment of the monetary damages caused by the January 12, 2010 earthquake that struck Haiti. Damages are estimated for a disaster with both 200,000 and 250,000 total dead and missing (i.e., the range of mortality that the earthquake is estimated to have caused) using Haiti’s economic and demographic data. The base estimate is US$8. ... (View publication)
This paper shows, first, that non-commodity revenues are more volatile in oil- and mineral-rich countries and that quality of institutions is associated with lower volatility. We investigate the channels through which oil and mineral revenue volatility lead to non-commodity revenues volatility, and find that when oil and fiscal revenues increase (decrease), non-commodity revenues are reduced (incr ... (View publication)
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